THE ENDGAME​

​

Autonomous trucks are a symptom of a much larger problem that Americans are already beginning to face. These same artificial intelligence (A.I.) technologies are being applied to every market simultaneously and will create substantial economic disruptions. And we haven't even touched the similarly transformative and world changing impacts from quantum computing and bipedal robotics, which could also be commercially viable by the end of the decade... Alarm bells have been ringing in academia for years, regarding the rate and scale of this change. Unfortunately, it appears the risks aren't being taken seriously. 

Historically, new technologies like the steam engine, typically lead to short term disruptions and economic pain for those displaced. But eventually, often after generations, new jobs were created, and quality of life increased for everyone over the long term. The concern is that the exponential growth in capability of A.I. will prevent those new jobs and opportunities from materializing over the long term. As it further develops, A.I. will increasingly be thumbing the economic scales away from humans and in favor of machines, by being progressively faster, cheaper, and more accurate for a permanently growing set of tasks. When that occurs, large-scale technological unemployment will likely result and overturn 300 years of historical job creating precedent for the first time. This trend will create severe socioeconomic and political problems.

Discussions are already occurring about how to deal with this issue. The most popular idea is a Universal Basic Income, where everyone is paid a set amount of money at regular intervals from the profits from A.I. Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Larry Page, and Sam Altman are part of a growing list of both conservative and liberal advocates for a UBI, or other similarly structured proposals. However, Kai Fu Lee, founder of Google China, criticized the idea in 2019 by saying, “It’s a painkiller, something to numb and sedate the people who have been hurt by the adoption of AI. And that numbing effect goes both ways: not only does it ease the pain for those displaced by technology; it also assuages the conscience of those who do the displacing.”

Industrial support for a Universal Basic Income, or other similarly structured proposals, are something of an admission to a future that warrants serious debate and consent by those who will be negatively affected by artificial intelligence. A UBI isn’t needed if people can pay their bills and buy products to keep the economy going. And there is no guarantee that those displaced will be satiated by a UBI if they still have to accept downward social mobility after being displaced. The future that we’re currently headed towards is expected to exacerbate America’s current social, political, and economic inequalities, while also creating a suite of other expected and unforeseen problems.

In the end, A.I. may be the tech-based "savior" that we need. But having all of us reach that point intact will be the hard part. America needs an honest discussion about the economic risks to people's livelihoods and about how we can avoid the worst aspects of this change.

Hopefully, we can find an outcome that we can all agree to live with.